Ed knows you don’t have to be clairvoyant to see the following things coming, but he’s going to look into his crystal ball anyway. Here’s what he predicts happening in the coming year.*
1. All print editors will have to do online work.
The print-only peeps who were resistant to all things web will need to broaden their horizons a bit this year, if they haven’t already. Everyone, save the top two or three at each mag, will have to blog, produce slide shows, or otherwise contribute to their magazines’ sites.
2. Hiring freezes will thaw mid-year.
As nature re-blooms in the spring, so will magazines, and open jobs will start being refilled, just in time for those 2009 grads.
3. Many “eliminated positions” will be reinstated by the end of the year.
At some magazines, the people in top spots who didn’t lose their jobs in 08 will have much, much more work to do in 2009, thanks to reduced staff. Some higher-ups will be okay with that; others won’t. As a result, they’ll need to rehire for jobs they previously thought were possible to do without.
4. Head counts will not swell to previous levels. Ever.
The biggest lesson of 2008, across all industries, was that overindulgence leads to ginormous problems. Magazines are no exception. So you know those pubs that used to have seven assistant managing editors and now only have one? They’re going to keep their staff size at or near the post-layoff number for years to come.
5. Major mag publishers will move out of Manhattan.
Maybe they won’t all flock to Emmaus, PA, but don’t be surprised if some biggies head to Brooklyn or (gasp!) Jersey. Magazines will continue to look for huge ways to save, and moving out of real estate bubble-resistant Manhattan will be a more attractive option than, say, going back to Quark.
6. Titles that shuttered will not be revived.
Attempts to resuscitate magazines like Life and Radar have mostly been for naught, so there’s little hope that our favorites that closed down this year will come back again in print.
7. Some print-to-web titles will shut down.
Not everything can be more successful as a web-only entity. And visitors to these sites will see that some of these efforts were merely to keep failing brands alive instead of to provide valuable content. They’ll abandon them for newer niche sites.
8. Top names will abandon the industry.
You’ve heard the rumors swirling about Anna. By the end of the year, some magazine mainstays will leave the jobs they’ve held for so long to retire or work on smaller, not necessarily magazine-related projects. Their replacements will be the bigger surprise: Far less-seasoned editors with progressive ideas.
9. Readers will turn to magazines more this year than last.
There will still be plenty of jobless folks in 09, unfortunately, but as companies begin to thrive again, people will work again and have $3.99 to spend on their favorite pubs. Circulation numbers will grow, and 2010 will be looking bright.
*Ed’s predictions are for entertainment purposes only. He is not a psychic. He’s just a magazine editor. Do not take these too seriously.
